Adam Dobrer

The Balagan

Balagan is Hebrew for chaos, and I help people make sense of it; that's the beat.

Dispatches on Canadian politics and how it collides with the rest of the world, from Ottawa and Victoria to Jerusalem and Tehran. Every post opens on Substack.

Start here

New here? read these three first!

  1. Governing the IntervalAug 2026The Israeli electorate will vote on myriad issues, among them whether external conflicts are to be resolved or merely managed.
  2. Canada in the BalanceJan 2026What Carney’s Davos sermon reveals about Canada’s new strategy, or lack thereof
  3. Enough with the Parade of PlatitudesDec 2025An open letter from an angry Jew.

Series

the series that keeps growing

Fault Line Pipeline

4 parts

How a pipeline through British Columbia could split Carney's coalition, followed as it happens.

  1. Part 1The Fault Line PipelineNov 2025
  2. Part 2Fault Line Pipeline Volume II: Cowichan Lands and Political BrandsDec 2025
  3. Part 3Fault Line Pipeline Vol. III: The Caracas Crunch?Feb 2026
  4. Part 4Fault Line Pipeline IV: The Grand Bargain?Jul 2026

Liminal Peace

2 parts

A Middle East between one order and the next, and what could hold it together.

  1. Part 1Liminal PeaceDec 2025
  2. Part 2Liminal Peace in a Changing Middle EastFeb 2026

Every post

2026

  1. Governing the IntervalAug 13The Israeli electorate will vote on myriad issues, among them whether external conflicts are to be resolved or merely managed.
  2. The Prosecutor Is Gone. The Warrants Must Follow.Aug 6Karim Khan’s removal exposes the compromised investigation, dubious jurisdiction and double standards behind The Hague’s case against Israel.
  3. Fault Line Pipeline IV: The Grand Bargain?Jul 25Fault Line Pipeline, part 4Carney's runway for phantom progress is running out.
  4. Strait TalkJul 16Was Operation Epic Fury a strategic failure?
  5. The Law of War and the Politics of IndecisionMar 15Why Mark Carney’s word salad on the US-Israel-Iran conflict fails the test of both international law and domestic reality.
  6. Death to "Death to America"Mar 4The Ayatollah is dead. I can scarcely believe it.
  7. The War We Chose Not to RememberFeb 17Afghanistan and the Unfinished Work of Canadian Memory
  8. Fault Line Pipeline Vol. III: The Caracas Crunch?Feb 9Fault Line Pipeline, part 3A heavy‑crude showdown Canada can’t afford to ignore
  9. National Unity (Now With Fewer Envoys)Feb 5Canada scraps its Special Envoys and hopes the politics follow.
  10. Liminal Peace in a Changing Middle EastFeb 3Liminal Peace, part 2Applying Fidan's conditional-structural framework to a region strained by Iran's instability
  11. Canada in the BalanceJan 24What Carney’s Davos sermon reveals about Canada’s new strategy, or lack thereof

2025

  1. Liminal PeaceDec 30Liminal Peace, part 1The Middle East on the Precipice of Transformation
  2. Death By a Thousand Floor CrossingsDec 16On the precipice of a majority government, the Liberals may wish to look before they leap!
  3. Enough with the Parade of PlatitudesDec 15An open letter from an angry Jew.
  4. Fault Line Pipeline Volume II: Cowichan Lands and Political BrandsDec 13Fault Line Pipeline, part 2Connecting two obvious dots that the media seems to have missed.
  5. The Fault Line PipelineNov 26Fault Line Pipeline, part 1A contentious pipeline proposal forces Carney's hand, threatening to inflame Canada’s simmering regional, and political divisions.
  6. The Brookfield BopNov 24They’re pilin’ in the C-suite, dancing to the Brookfield Bop
  7. Three Chambers, Three Votes, Three SpectaclesNov 17The best things always come in threes!
  8. The CBC Alley-Oop's Carney Effort to Sack the Interim Parliamentary Budget OfficerNov 15In basketball as in politics, timing is everything.
  9. Oh, the November Gales Came Early!Nov 11The fifth estate cooks up a narrative for a Carney majority government, damaging Canadian democracy in the process.